The authorization given by Biden to Europeans to deliver F-16s to Ukraine is in fact a way to erase, by a communication blow, the strategic setback of Bakhmut and above all, to benefit from it for the American industry...
The fall of Bakhmut, the Ukrainian Verdun, occurred on May 20, 2023 after a heroic Ukrainian defense of 224 days where Zelenski engaged his best forces that lost up to 1000 deaths per day estimates Gallagher Fenwick, a great reporter, specialist in Ukraine.
It was the last strategic lock that blocked the road for Russian forces to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the last two major cities of the Donetsk Oblates that remain to be conquered before reaching its western administrative borders.
This loss was likely to have a considerable impact on the morale of the Ukrainian forces and those of their external supporters, whose media and consultants on orders have not stopped announcing to date the imminence of a Ukrainian counter-offensive that could only be victorious because of massive Western aid, especially in heavy tanks.
Obviously, everything had to be done to mask and mitigate this potential negative impact of a Russian victory on Ukrainian forces, the population of Ukraine and those of the countries that support it.
Thus, the authorization given by Biden to Europeans to deliver F16s on condition that they do not fly over Russian territory, comes at the right time.
Indeed, this decision by Washington is well played because it makes a triple blow:
Well exploited by Ukrainian propaganda, it can have a positive impact on the morale of Ukrainian fighters but will have no concrete impact in the medium term on Ukraine's firepower and the defense of its airspace for two reasons:
-Europeans are mainly equipped with the version of the F-16AM/BM MLU, manufactured under license in Europe until 1980, and which are being replaced, for example in the Netherlands, by F-35A. These F16s that entered service more than 40 years ago are outclassed by the most modern Russian fighters and have no chance of endangering the Russian device protected by S400s;
- more importantly, they will not be able to be used by Ukraine to acquire air superiority for several years because knowing how to fly a fighter plane and one thing, fighting with it is another. A seasoned Ukrainian pilot on Mig can acquire a "conscious skill" on F -16 in one year. But moving to "unconscious competence", i.e. being able to fight under stress by "reflex" will take several years. Indeed, in an air confrontation with a Russian pilot, the latter will act with "reflexes" acquired for several years on MIG while "unconsciously" a Ukrainian pilot will act the reflexes he learned on MIG because he will still have only have a "conscious skill" on F-16. The film "Mavericks" is the best educational tool of this reality.